Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Flawed Logic

I woke up today to the news that Barak Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee, which resulted in tons of speculation that Hillary Clinton may go from being Obama's punching bag to his right-hand bag, as his VP. At this point, insiders are trying to work deals behind the scenes, but who knows who will eventually be Obama's running mate. Hopefully, Obama will take his time and pick the right person. I haven't decided yet whether I think Hillary would be a good VP or not.

The media seems to be suggesting that picking Clinton is a win-win situation for Democrats, but I'm not sure that all Clinton supporters will trade in their "Bill Clinton for First Lady" t-shirts for "One you vote Barak, you'll never go back". Personally, I've been sporting my two favorite Dick Cheney shirts.

My point is that it's easy to fall into the logical trap that every other voter out there approaches this situation the same way we would. I would vote for a steaming pile of dog shit before I would vote for John McCain. For me, the decision has been made. Another group of Dems that were supporting Clinton will probably support Obama. Although the polls that will really tell us something are only being conducted as I type this, we know from our friends at Polling Report that the data suggest that before Clinton conceded, about 60% of Clinton supporters would switch to Obama without her being the running mate. In the coming days, we'll see if Obama's poll numbers increase. You know Obama's people are watching those polls like hawks.

My prediction is that if Obama opens up a huge lead without naming Clinton as his VP, he'll take his time. If Obama's numbers don't change a lot, I think he'll scoop Clinton up and be off to the races. Right now, McCain and Obama are polling within the margin of error of each other, so the poll numbers are going to tell us a lot over the next few days. I think 5% is the magic number: Obama leads McCain by more than that, Clinton is out. Obama stays in a virtual tie, say hello to VP Clinton.


Lord Bling said...

Valid point. Once you name a VP, you get a boost, but you can't undo that, so save it for as late as you can.

HCP said...

Convention, convention. Are any of you guys coming out for the convention? I thought it might be fun to get loaded in LoDo with a town full of democrats. You know...I think I coined a shirt phrase for the convention:

--"Loaded in LoDo"

-Look for the shirt soon!